01 Jan 2007 10:27:48
What happened to Dean Chance?

This question is for all, but more for the old-timers here who remember
Dean and saw him play. In 1964, Dean Chance won the Cy Young Award (for
all of baseball), and went 20-9 with 11 shutouts. He also pitched for
an amazing 1.65 ERA. What happened to him after that? Did Dean Chance
get some kind of injury? His 1964 season must have made him look like
one of the next great pitchers in baseball (and even a future
hall-of-famer). But he seems to have fizzled out after 64. What gives?



01 Jan 2007 14:37:45
sfb
Re: What happened to Dean Chance?

He won 15, 12, 20, and 16 games in the next four years so it isn't like he
walked off the edge of the earth after 1964.

<[email protected] > wrote in message
news:[email protected]
> This question is for all, but more for the old-timers here who remember
> Dean and saw him play. In 1964, Dean Chance won the Cy Young Award (for
> all of baseball), and went 20-9 with 11 shutouts. He also pitched for
> an amazing 1.65 ERA. What happened to him after that? Did Dean Chance
> get some kind of injury? His 1964 season must have made him look like
> one of the next great pitchers in baseball (and even a future
> hall-of-famer). But he seems to have fizzled out after 64. What gives?
>




01 Jan 2007 12:45:19
Re: What happened to Dean Chance?

What you say is true, and I noted that when I looked at his stats
before posting. However, none of those seasons were even close to his
1964 performance. From 1965-68, Chance went 15-10, 12-17, 20-14, and
16-16. And his ERA numbers were 3.15, 3.08, 2.73, and 2.53.

No, Chance didn't walk off the edge of the earth after 64, but his
"fall" from true pitching greatness was a big one.


sfb wrote:
> He won 15, 12, 20, and 16 games in the next four years so it isn't like he
> walked off the edge of the earth after 1964.
>
> <[email protected]> wrote in message
> news:[email protected]
> > This question is for all, but more for the old-timers here who remember
> > Dean and saw him play. In 1964, Dean Chance won the Cy Young Award (for
> > all of baseball), and went 20-9 with 11 shutouts. He also pitched for
> > an amazing 1.65 ERA. What happened to him after that? Did Dean Chance
> > get some kind of injury? His 1964 season must have made him look like
> > one of the next great pitchers in baseball (and even a future
> > hall-of-famer). But he seems to have fizzled out after 64. What gives?
> >



01 Jan 2007 22:14:47
Mark Vaughan
Re: What happened to Dean Chance?

[email protected] wrote in
news:[email protected]:

> This question is for all, but more for the old-timers here who
> remember Dean and saw him play. In 1964, Dean Chance won the Cy
> Young Award (for all of baseball), and went 20-9 with 11 shutouts.
> He also pitched for an amazing 1.65 ERA. What happened to him after
> that? Did Dean Chance get some kind of injury? His 1964 season must
> have made him look like one of the next great pitchers in baseball
> (and even a future hall-of-famer). But he seems to have fizzled out
> after 64. What gives?
>
>

I remember Dean Chance, but don't remember what happened to end his
career...looking at his record, I'd guess that he suffered some kind
of injury in early/mid 1968, and was not able to bounce back


--

Mark Vaughan


02 Jan 2007 02:16:31
James Kahn
Re: What happened to Dean Chance?

In <[email protected] > Mark Vaughan <[email protected]> writes:

>[email protected] wrote in
>news:[email protected]:

>> This question is for all, but more for the old-timers here who
>> remember Dean and saw him play. In 1964, Dean Chance won the Cy
>> Young Award (for all of baseball), and went 20-9 with 11 shutouts.
>> He also pitched for an amazing 1.65 ERA. What happened to him after
>> that? Did Dean Chance get some kind of injury? His 1964 season must
>> have made him look like one of the next great pitchers in baseball
>> (and even a future hall-of-famer). But he seems to have fizzled out
>> after 64. What gives?

>I remember Dean Chance, but don't remember what happened to end his
>career...looking at his record, I'd guess that he suffered some kind
>of injury in early/mid 1968, and was not able to bounce back

He threw a lot of innings, nearly 1000, before age 25. That's
a good predictor for being washed up by age 30. (See Gooden, Dwight.)
Of course there are exceptions, but still, it's not an unusual career
profile. And I don't think he was going to make it as a pinch hitter. :)


--
Jim
New York, NY
(Please remove "nospam." to get my e-mail address)
http://www.panix.com/~kahn


02 Jan 2007 17:41:54
Roger Moore
Re: What happened to Dean Chance?

[email protected] writes:

>This question is for all, but more for the old-timers here who remember
>Dean and saw him play. In 1964, Dean Chance won the Cy Young Award (for
>all of baseball), and went 20-9 with 11 shutouts. He also pitched for
>an amazing 1.65 ERA. What happened to him after that? Did Dean Chance
>get some kind of injury? His 1964 season must have made him look like
>one of the next great pitchers in baseball (and even a future
>hall-of-famer). But he seems to have fizzled out after 64. What gives?

Looking at his record, it I'd say that it was his 1964 season that
needs explaining, not his failure to replicate it. From 1962 to 1968,
he was a consistently good but not outstanding pitcher, with his
exceptional 1964 season standing out like a sore thumb. The "look
like one of the next great pitchers" bit is just an unrealistic
response to a single freakishly good season.

--
Roger Moore | Master of Meaningless Trivia | ([email protected])
There's no point in questioning authority if you don't listen to the answers.


02 Jan 2007 21:20:33
James Kahn
Re: What happened to Dean Chance?

In <[email protected] > [email protected] (Roger Moore) writes:

>[email protected] writes:

>>This question is for all, but more for the old-timers here who remember
>>Dean and saw him play. In 1964, Dean Chance won the Cy Young Award (for
>>all of baseball), and went 20-9 with 11 shutouts. He also pitched for
>>an amazing 1.65 ERA. What happened to him after that? Did Dean Chance
>>get some kind of injury? His 1964 season must have made him look like
>>one of the next great pitchers in baseball (and even a future
>>hall-of-famer). But he seems to have fizzled out after 64. What gives?

>Looking at his record, it I'd say that it was his 1964 season that
>needs explaining, not his failure to replicate it. From 1962 to 1968,
>he was a consistently good but not outstanding pitcher, with his
>exceptional 1964 season standing out like a sore thumb. The "look
>like one of the next great pitchers" bit is just an unrealistic
>response to a single freakishly good season.

Maybe, but that doesn't mean there isn't a physical explanation
for it. There aren't too many examples of pitchers having
just one freakishly good season, especially at a young age,
unless some kind of injury is involved. Vida Blue is similar, but
he had at least one other outstanding season. I'm guessing Chance
lost some velocity or had some other physical problems from all
those innings at a young age.
--
Jim
New York, NY
(Please remove "nospam." to get my e-mail address)
http://www.panix.com/~kahn


03 Jan 2007 06:56:04
Ron Johnson
Re: What happened to Dean Chance?


Mark Vaughan wrote:
> [email protected] wrote in
> news:[email protected]:
>
> > This question is for all, but more for the old-timers here who
> > remember Dean and saw him play. In 1964, Dean Chance won the Cy
> > Young Award (for all of baseball), and went 20-9 with 11 shutouts.
> > He also pitched for an amazing 1.65 ERA. What happened to him after
> > that? Did Dean Chance get some kind of injury? His 1964 season must
> > have made him look like one of the next great pitchers in baseball
> > (and even a future hall-of-famer). But he seems to have fizzled out
> > after 64. What gives?
> >
>
> I remember Dean Chance, but don't remember what happened to end his
> career...looking at his record, I'd guess that he suffered some kind
> of injury in early/mid 1968, and was not able to bounce back

I remember he had a serious arm injury in 1969. Wouldn't surprise me
that he had problems with the arm before then.



03 Jan 2007 10:05:54
Tim M
Re: What happened to Dean Chance?

James Kahn wrote:
>
> Maybe, but that doesn't mean there isn't a physical explanation
> for it. There aren't too many examples of pitchers having
> just one freakishly good season, especially at a young age,
> unless some kind of injury is involved. Vida Blue is similar, but
> he had at least one other outstanding season. I'm guessing Chance
> lost some velocity or had some other physical problems from all
> those innings at a young age.

Chance's K/BB totals in his 1964 season aren't out of line w/ the rest
of his career, in fact they are worse than his numbers in '66-67 when
he had ERAs around 3.

I think he just got massively lucky in '64 w/ the timing of hits
against him and/or lots of balls going right at defenders. He only
gave up 7 HR, which suggests that he might have been especially good at
preventing hard-hit balls that year. But I will guess that it's just a
fluke.

ERA is the new "wins". It depends on lots besides the actual ability
of the pitcher.



06 Jan 2007 13:05:11
Re: What happened to Dean Chance?


James Kahn wrote:
> In <[email protected]> [email protected] (Roger Moore) writes:
>
> >[email protected] writes:
>
> >>This question is for all, but more for the old-timers here who remember
> >>Dean and saw him play. In 1964, Dean Chance won the Cy Young Award (for
> >>all of baseball), and went 20-9 with 11 shutouts. He also pitched for
> >>an amazing 1.65 ERA. What happened to him after that? Did Dean Chance
> >>get some kind of injury? His 1964 season must have made him look like
> >>one of the next great pitchers in baseball (and even a future
> >>hall-of-famer). But he seems to have fizzled out after 64. What gives?
>
> >Looking at his record, it I'd say that it was his 1964 season that
> >needs explaining, not his failure to replicate it. From 1962 to 1968,
> >he was a consistently good but not outstanding pitcher, with his
> >exceptional 1964 season standing out like a sore thumb. The "look
> >like one of the next great pitchers" bit is just an unrealistic
> >response to a single freakishly good season.
>
> Maybe, but that doesn't mean there isn't a physical explanation
> for it. There aren't too many examples of pitchers having
> just one freakishly good season, especially at a young age,
> unless some kind of injury is involved. Vida Blue is similar, but
> he had at least one other outstanding season. I'm guessing Chance
> lost some velocity or had some other physical problems from all
> those innings at a young age.

I agree. Chance's great 1964 season is really an anomaly when compared
to the rest of his career. It's quite rare that a pitcher has one
season that is SO great, and is SO above any other season he had.

My guess is that Chance probably had some kind of injury that prevented
him from achieving anything close to the 1964 season again.




> --
> Jim
> New York, NY
> (Please remove "nospam." to get my e-mail address)
> http://www.panix.com/~kahn



08 Jan 2007 21:26:09
Cameron Laird
Re: What happened to Dean Chance?

In article <[email protected] >,
<[email protected] > wrote:
.
.
.
>I agree. Chance's great 1964 season is really an anomaly when compared
>to the rest of his career. It's quite rare that a pitcher has one
>season that is SO great, and is SO above any other season he had.
.
.
.
Maybe. Years that good are simply rare. I'm unconvinced
that there's any true and interesting proposition about
their frequency among otherwise forgettable pitchers (and,
no, I'm not saying Chance was *bad*, or even unmemorable,
just statistically hard to distinguish from Mel Stottlemyre,
Sonny Siebert, ...).

One game that's been played here often before is, "who was
most clearly under alien mind control?" in the sense of
Cash '61, Anderson '96, Johnson '73, ... Among pitchers,
Kent Bottenfield '99's 18 (!) wins sure grabs attention,
until you realize it was almost entirely a random variation
outside his control (he had unusually good relief pitching
and run support, apparently). Look at Dolf Luque '23.


23 Jan 2007 15:00:48
Re: What happened to Dean Chance?



On Jan 8, 4:26 pm, [email protected] (Cameron Laird) wrote:
> In article <[email protected]>, <[email protected]> wrote: .
> .
> .>I agree. Chance's great 1964 season is really an anomaly when compared
> >to the rest of his career. It's quite rare that a pitcher has one
> >season that is SO great, and is SO above any other season he had. .
> .
> .
> Maybe. Years that good are simply rare. I'm unconvinced
> that there's any true and interesting proposition about
> their frequency among otherwise forgettable pitchers (and,
> no, I'm not saying Chance was *bad*, or even unmemorable,
> just statistically hard to distinguish from Mel Stottlemyre,
> Sonny Siebert, ...).
>
> One game that's been played here often before is, "who was
> most clearly under alien mind control?" in the sense of
> Cash '61, Anderson '96, Johnson '73, ... Among pitchers,
> Kent Bottenfield '99's 18 (!) wins sure grabs attention,
> until you realize it was almost entirely a random variation
> outside his control (he had unusually good relief pitching
> and run support, apparently). Look at Dolf Luque '23.

Dean Chance was a notoriously hard partier, and the running partner of
Bo Belinsky in the wild LA scene of the mid-1960s. That may have had
something to do with his decline, although it could just have been a
sore arm. I think he wound pu promoting boxing in Ohio and later was
involved in carnivals!

The Arranger