29 Sep 2004 23:21:58
SavoyBG
Walking Bonds

Here is the chart of the number of runs the Giants would be expected to score
for each of the 24 possible combination of outs and base runners if Bonds is
walked or if he is pitched to...

Runner No Outs One Out Two Outs
Situation P W P W P W
None On 0.62 0.86 0.39 0.53 0.20 0.20
R on 1st 1.15 1.53 0.76 0.97 0.41 0.43
R on 2nd 1.26 1.53 0.85 0.97 0.48 0.43
R on 3rd 1.45 1.75 1.06 1.29 0.52 0.45
R on 1+ 2 1.91 2.62 1.38 2.03 0.73 0.76
R on 1+ 3 2.09 2.62 1.57 2.03 0.75 0.76
R on 2+ 3 2.18 2.62 1.63 2.03 0.83 0.76
Loaded 2.98 3.62 2.38 3.03 1.23 1.76

P = if he is pitched to
W = if he is walked






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30 Sep 2004 02:14:39
Dvd Avins
Re: Walking Bonds

"SavoyBG" <[email protected] > wrote in message
news:[email protected]
> Here is the chart of the number of runs the Giants would be expected to
score
> for each of the 24 possible combination of outs and base runners if Bonds
is
> walked or if he is pitched to...
>
> Runner No Outs One Out Two Outs
> Situation P W P W P W
> None On 0.62 0.86 0.39 0.53 0.20 0.20
> R on 1st 1.15 1.53 0.76 0.97 0.41 0.43
> R on 2nd 1.26 1.53 0.85 0.97 0.48 0.43
> R on 3rd 1.45 1.75 1.06 1.29 0.52 0.45
> R on 1+ 2 1.91 2.62 1.38 2.03 0.73 0.76
> R on 1+ 3 2.09 2.62 1.57 2.03 0.75 0.76
> R on 2+ 3 2.18 2.62 1.63 2.03 0.83 0.76
> Loaded 2.98 3.62 2.38 3.03 1.23 1.76

So early in the game, where expected runs in the inning is the main
consideration, you'd do reasonably to always walk him with two outs, and
never with zero or one outs. The one big exception is that you wouldn't want
to walk in a run.




29 Sep 2004 22:55:21
David J. Grabiner
Re: Walking Bonds

[email protected] (SavoyBG) writes:

> Here is the chart of the number of runs the Giants would be expected to score
> for each of the 24 possible combination of outs and base runners if Bonds is
> walked or if he is pitched to...
>
> Runner No Outs One Out Two Outs
> Situation P W P W P W
> None On 0.62 0.86 0.39 0.53 0.20 0.20
> R on 1st 1.15 1.53 0.76 0.97 0.41 0.43
> R on 2nd 1.26 1.53 0.85 0.97 0.48 0.43
> R on 3rd 1.45 1.75 1.06 1.29 0.52 0.45
> R on 1+ 2 1.91 2.62 1.38 2.03 0.73 0.76
> R on 1+ 3 2.09 2.62 1.57 2.03 0.75 0.76
> R on 2+ 3 2.18 2.62 1.63 2.03 0.83 0.76
> Loaded 2.98 3.62 2.38 3.03 1.23 1.76
>
> P = if he is pitched to
> W = if he is walked

So Bonds is good enough that the expected runs are reduced if he comes
up with two out and first base unoccupied. This happens about 1/5 of
the time (first base is occupied in less than half of plate appearances
with two out), which would justify over 100 intentional walks.

If you don't walk him with the bases empty, that reduces the walk rate
to 1/15 of his plate appearances.

The most surprising nmumber here is that an intentional walk is not
worthwhile with one out and a runner on second base. This is a common
situation for intentional walks, although usually only with a tie score
or the batting team ahead, so that the first run allowed is more costly
than other runs.

--
David Grabiner, [email protected], http://remarque.org/~grabiner
Baseball labor negotiations FAQ: http://remarque.org/~grabiner/laborfaq.html
Shop at the Mobius Strip Mall: Always on the same side of the street!
Klein Glassworks, Torus Coffee and Donuts, Projective Airlines, etc.


30 Sep 2004 07:58:13
Chris Zabel
Re: Walking Bonds

What would be interesting to see is this broken down into 2 tables by his
platoon split since there is such a large gap between the two sides in terms
of OPS.

--
"They tease me now, telling me it was only a dream. But does it matter
whether it was a dream or reality, if the dream made known to me the
truth?" - Dostoevsky



30 Sep 2004 09:40:01
Ben
Re: Walking Bonds

> Here is the chart of the number of runs the Giants would be expected
> to score for each of the 24 possible combination of outs and base
> runners if Bonds is walked or if he is pitched to...

could you give a brief expl of your methodology?

--
Ben B




30 Sep 2004 20:16:04
Tom MacIntyre
Re: Walking Bonds

On 29 Sep 2004 23:21:58 GMT, [email protected] (SavoyBG) wrote:

>Here is the chart of the number of runs the Giants would be expected to score
>for each of the 24 possible combination of outs and base runners if Bonds is
>walked or if he is pitched to...
>
>Runner No Outs One Out Two Outs
>Situation P W P W P W
>None On 0.62 0.86 0.39 0.53 0.20 0.20
>R on 1st 1.15 1.53 0.76 0.97 0.41 0.43
>R on 2nd 1.26 1.53 0.85 0.97 0.48 0.43
>R on 3rd 1.45 1.75 1.06 1.29 0.52 0.45
>R on 1+ 2 1.91 2.62 1.38 2.03 0.73 0.76
>R on 1+ 3 2.09 2.62 1.57 2.03 0.75 0.76
>R on 2+ 3 2.18 2.62 1.63 2.03 0.83 0.76
>Loaded 2.98 3.62 2.38 3.03 1.23 1.76
>
>P = if he is pitched to
>W = if he is walked
>

So...instead of his team's offense being hurt by the walks, like his
own offense is, they are actually helped?

That unselfish bas****!

Tom