26 Nov 2003 01:43:49
D & K
ESPN Headlines - Big Trade

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1671120

Derek Lee was traded for Hee SEop Choi.

When I looked at work the headline read 'Marlins start shedding payroll' or
something to that effect. Now it says 'Cubs Land Big Fish'

Anyway you slice it this is an upgrade for the Marlins - Has Neyer had any
influence with the other hacks at ESPN?




25 Nov 2003 21:31:54
John Northey
Re: ESPN Headlines - Big Trade

"D & K" <[email protected] > wrote:
>http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1671120
>
>Derek Lee was traded for Hee SEop Choi.

Strange trade for the Cubs to make one would think. Choi was
218/350/421 last year and has one or two years left before he is
eligible for arbitration. Lee in his career is 264/353/467 after a
solid 271/379/508 last year. Choi could easily outperform Lee next
season, thus why give him up along with a prospect for Lee? Perhaps
the Cubs think Lee will keep up at his current level while Choi will
regress. Given Lee has produced at this level for 3 of the past 4
years he is likely to stay close to it. Choi though is 4 years
younger and a lot cheaper.

Just a shame a team I can cheer for didn't get Choi out of Chicago
instead of the {ugh} Marlins.


John Northey.
"Professional baseball is on the wane. Salaries must come down
or the interest of the public must be increased in some way.
If one or the other does not happen, bankruptcy stares every
team in the face."
-- Chicago White Stockings owner Albert Spalding, 1881


25 Nov 2003 22:02:01
Sam Hutcheson
Re: ESPN Headlines - Big Trade

On Tue, 25 Nov 2003 21:31:54 -0500, John Northey
<[email protected] > wrote:

>"D & K" <[email protected]> wrote:
>>http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1671120
>>
>>Derek Lee was traded for Hee SEop Choi.
>
>Strange trade for the Cubs to make one would think. Choi was
>218/350/421 last year and has one or two years left before he is
>eligible for arbitration. Lee in his career is 264/353/467 after a
>solid 271/379/508 last year. Choi could easily outperform Lee next
>season, thus why give him up along with a prospect for Lee? Perhaps
>the Cubs think Lee will keep up at his current level while Choi will
>regress. Given Lee has produced at this level for 3 of the past 4
>years he is likely to stay close to it. Choi though is 4 years
>younger and a lot cheaper.

you're forgetting the dusty factor. lee's dark-skinned, so clearly
dusty thinks he's better suited to all those day games in wrigley.

s/

*****
"I learned early how to keep my head up, cause I know there's
this side of me, that
Wants to grab the yoke from the pilot and just, fly the whole
mess into the sea." -- The Shins


25 Nov 2003 23:16:11
Dvd Avins
Re: ESPN Headlines - Big Trade

"D & K" <[email protected] > wrote in message
news:[email protected]
> http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1671120
>
> Derek Lee was traded for Hee SEop Choi.
>
> When I looked at work the headline read 'Marlins start shedding payroll'
or
> something to that effect. Now it says 'Cubs Land Big Fish'
>
> Anyway you slice it this is an upgrade for the Marlins - Has Neyer had any
> influence with the other hacks at ESPN?

Isn't there a PTNBL involved?




26 Nov 2003 06:50:10
Nelson Lu
Re: ESPN Headlines - Big Trade

In article <[email protected] >,
Dvd Avins <[email protected] > wrote:
>"D & K" <[email protected]> wrote in message
>news:[email protected]
>> http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1671120
>>
>> Der[r]ek Lee was traded for Hee SEop Choi.
>>
>> When I looked at work the headline read 'Marlins start shedding payroll'
>or
>> something to that effect. Now it says 'Cubs Land Big Fish'
>>
>> Anyway you slice it this is an upgrade for the Marlins - Has Neyer had any
>> influence with the other hacks at ESPN?
>
>Isn't there a PTNBL involved?

Right, but the PTBNL goes from Chicago to Florida. So, unless that PTBNL is
a real albatross, it only makes the trade even more in favor of the Marlins.

"SABREmetrics isn't about statistics, it is about the search for new
evidence." - Bill James (thanks, Bill Reich)
===============================================================================
GO ANAHEIM ANGELS!
Recall the Harassinator!
===============================================================================
Nelson Lu ([email protected])


26 Nov 2003 09:49:12
Dobbs Redemption
Re: ESPN Headlines - Big Trade

[email protected] (Nelson Lu) wrote in message news:<[email protected] >...
> In article <[email protected]>,
> Dvd Avins <[email protected]> wrote:
> >"D & K" <[email protected]> wrote in message
> >news:[email protected]
> >> http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1671120
> >>
> >> Der[r]ek Lee was traded for Hee SEop Choi.
> >>
> >> When I looked at work the headline read 'Marlins start shedding payroll'
> or
> >> something to that effect. Now it says 'Cubs Land Big Fish'
> >>
> >> Anyway you slice it this is an upgrade for the Marlins - Has Neyer had any
> >> influence with the other hacks at ESPN?
> >
> >Isn't there a PTNBL involved?
>
> Right, but the PTBNL goes from Chicago to Florida. So, unless that PTBNL is
> a real albatross, it only makes the trade even more in favor of the Marlins.
>
> "SABREmetrics isn't about statistics, it is about the search for new
> evidence." - Bill James (thanks, Bill Reich)
> ===============================================================================
> GO ANAHEIM ANGELS!
> Recall the Harassinator!
> ===============================================================================
> Nelson Lu ([email protected])

Lee's home/road splits the last three years:

BA / OBP/ SLG
Home: .242/.371/.419
Road: .297/.388/.591

Pro Player has been a tough park for right handed gap hitters. I
expect Lee's numbers to jump next year playing half his games at
Wrigley. He'll be 28 next year and probably still has some growth
left as a hitter. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he makes the All
Star team and finishes with a .950+ OPS.

Choi has promise but is still a wildcard. He could progress, or he
could struggle to be the next Tony Clark. Florida is looking to dump
salary, though, and Choi will offer more bang for the buck. I think
the trade makes sense for both teams.


26 Nov 2003 13:33:22
Ima Pseudonym
Re: ESPN Headlines - Big Trade

On 26 Nov 2003 09:49:12 -0800, [email protected] (Dobbs
Redemption) wrote:

>Lee's home/road splits the last three years:
>
> BA / OBP/ SLG
>Home: .242/.371/.419
>Road: .297/.388/.591
>
>Pro Player has been a tough park for right handed gap hitters. I
>expect Lee's numbers to jump next year playing half his games at
>Wrigley. He'll be 28 next year and probably still has some growth
>left as a hitter. It wouldn't surprise me at all if he makes the All
>Star team and finishes with a .950+ OPS.
>
>Choi has promise but is still a wildcard. He could progress, or he
>could struggle to be the next Tony Clark. Florida is looking to dump
>salary, though, and Choi will offer more bang for the buck. I think
>the trade makes sense for both teams.

Lee's an underrated player, but he'll cost about $6 million more than
Choi this season, And Choi was decent this season, even with a .218
batting average, which is lower than he is likely to bat in the
future. He had a secondary average of .335 this season - if he can
keep that up, and raise his batting average to .270 or so he'll be one
of the top young hitters in baseball.

This would make more sense for the Cubs if they had shown a
willingness to pay more in line with their real revenue. I wouldn't
be surprised if the Cubs were second in baseball in true revenue, once
the underpayments for TV rights and the scalped ticket revenue are
included. But since they seem to be committed to paying $85 million
in salary this season the extra salary could probably have been better
spent elsewhere.



27 Nov 2003 04:31:21
Corby Gilmore
Re: ESPN Headlines - Big Trade

Nelson Lu ([email protected]) writes:
>>>
>>> Der[r]ek Lee was traded for Hee SEop Choi.
>>>
>>> When I looked at work the headline read 'Marlins start shedding payroll'
>>or
>>> something to that effect. Now it says 'Cubs Land Big Fish'
>>>
>>> Anyway you slice it this is an upgrade for the Marlins - Has Neyer had any
>>> influence with the other hacks at ESPN?
>>
>>Isn't there a PTNBL involved?
>
> Right, but the PTBNL goes from Chicago to Florida. So, unless that PTBNL is
> a real albatross, it only makes the trade even more in favor of the Marlins.

I couldnt disagree with you gentlemen more. This trade represents a
salary dump for the Marlins, i.e. deja vu all over again; talent-wise, it
is a huge, huge DOWNgrade for Florida. acquiring Derrek Lee for Hee Sop Choi
and a PTBNL is a major steal for the Cubs, not the Marlins!!!
--
Corby Gilmore
[email protected]


28 Nov 2003 19:38:36
The Only Mosey
Re: ESPN Headlines - Big Trade

On 27 Nov 2003 04:31:21 GMT Corby Gilmore opened up that worthless piehole and
remarked:

> I couldnt disagree with you gentlemen more. This trade represents a
>salary dump for the Marlins, i.e. deja vu all over again; talent-wise, it
>is a huge, huge DOWNgrade for Florida. acquiring Derrek Lee for Hee Sop Choi
>and a PTBNL is a major steal for the Cubs, not the Marlins!!!

So, can we take bets on that? For Lee to be a "major steal" (ignoring the PTBNL)
he'd have to out perform Choi, what, 20% plus some salary?

Lee did that this year but, Choi likely had his low watermark season and it is
pretty clear Lee has peaked/plateaued. Even when you consider Lee is going from
a high pitchers park, 25% seems like a lot of give.

Derris Lee's upside is Derrek Lee. Choi's upside is Jim Thome.

John Mosey Complaints can be sent to [email protected]
Brewers-o-meter X |-----|-----| (and that includes Ricky Weeks)
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll
tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
-Rogers Hornsby



28 Nov 2003 21:17:47
Ima Pseudonym
Re: ESPN Headlines - Big Trade

On 28 Nov 2003 19:38:36 -0800, The Only Mosey <[email protected] >
wrote:

>On 27 Nov 2003 04:31:21 GMT Corby Gilmore opened up that worthless piehole and
>remarked:
>
>> I couldnt disagree with you gentlemen more. This trade represents a
>>salary dump for the Marlins, i.e. deja vu all over again; talent-wise, it
>>is a huge, huge DOWNgrade for Florida. acquiring Derrek Lee for Hee Sop Choi
>>and a PTBNL is a major steal for the Cubs, not the Marlins!!!
>
>So, can we take bets on that? For Lee to be a "major steal" (ignoring the PTBNL)
>he'd have to out perform Choi, what, 20% plus some salary?
>
>Lee did that this year but, Choi likely had his low watermark season and it is
>pretty clear Lee has peaked/plateaued. Even when you consider Lee is going from
>a high pitchers park, 25% seems like a lot of give.
>
>Derris Lee's upside is Derrek Lee. Choi's upside is Jim Thome.

Prior to the concussion, Choi was batting .244/.389/.496. Yes, there
was some platooning involved, but it still is impressive for a 24 year
old.

If he can keep the same sort of secondary averages he's shown, and
raise his batting average to .270 or so, he'll be a big star. And
that's not a particularly large longshot.


29 Nov 2003 05:24:18
Corby Gilmore
Re: ESPN Headlines - Big Trade

The Only Mosey ([email protected]) writes:
> On 27 Nov 2003 04:31:21 GMT Corby Gilmore opened up that worthless piehole and
> remarked:
>
>> I couldnt disagree with you gentlemen more. This trade represents a
>>salary dump for the Marlins, i.e. deja vu all over again; talent-wise, it
>>is a huge, huge DOWNgrade for Florida. acquiring Derrek Lee for Hee Sop Choi
>>and a PTBNL is a major steal for the Cubs, not the Marlins!!!
>
> So, can we take bets on that? For Lee to be a "major steal" (ignoring the PTBNL)
> he'd have to out perform Choi, what, 20% plus some salary?
>
> Lee did that this year but, Choi likely had his low watermark season and it is
> pretty clear Lee has peaked/plateaued. Even when you consider Lee is going from
> a high pitchers park, 25% seems like a lot of give.
>
> Derris Lee's upside is Derrek Lee. Choi's upside is Jim Thome.

The same lofty expectations that you put on Hee Sop Choi were also put
forth on Lyle Overbay and Carlos Pena. It hasnt happened yet for either of
those gentlemen either. Lee was .271/.508/.379 last season in Florida with
31 homers and 92 rbis. I would expect that .280/.560/.425 is not an
unreasonable expectation for his first season in Wrigley. I would not
expect Choi to do this in Florida especially since he will be backing up
Jeff Conine, not starting.

Your argument is a lot like saying that the Schilling trade is a steal for
Arizona because Casey Fossum's upside is Randy Johnson. Obviously, I dont
believe that of Casey Fossum; I dont agree with your expectations for Hee
Sop Choi, either.
--
Corby Gilmore
[email protected]


29 Nov 2003 08:33:13
The Only Mosey
Re: ESPN Headlines - Big Trade

On 29 Nov 2003 05:24:18 GMT Corby Gilmore opened up that worthless piehole and
remarked:

>> Derris Lee's upside is Derrek Lee. Choi's upside is Jim Thome.
>
> The same lofty expectations that you put on Hee Sop Choi were also put
>forth on Lyle Overbay and Carlos Pena.

Pena, yes (not quite as high) Overbay, no. Overbay is what, 27 now?

Pena is actually in a simalr boat still. .270ish ave and he is a .270/.350/.460
player minimum. 600 PA and he is a 35-40 HR guy.

It hasnt happened yet for either of
>those gentlemen either. Lee was .271/.508/.379 last season in Florida with
>31 homers and 92 rbis. I would expect that .280/.560/.425 is not an
>unreasonable expectation for his first season in Wrigley.

Neither is .260/.350/.480 (I think a .425 OB is pretty unreasonable; why would
he suddeny add 45 points of OB? How many walks is that? 30ish? and 60 points of
slugging? You have him winning an MVP)

I would not
>expect Choi to do this in Florida especially since he will be backing up
>Jeff Conine, not starting.

What makes you think he is backing up Connie? Connie can play 4 positions, only
one of them is 1b, which they just got someone for (and he didn't play there at
all in Florida)

> Your argument is a lot like saying that the Schilling trade is a steal for
>Arizona because Casey Fossum's upside is Randy Johnson.

No scout has ever said that though about Fossum. Choi was a top 10 prospect to
most scouts for two or three years. Fossum's upside is "possible, not probable
ace", not "historic ace." Last year (I think) Choi led the minors in HR in bb.
At least leaderboard.

Obviously, I dont
>believe that of Casey Fossum; I dont agree with your expectations for Hee
>Sop Choi, either.

What do you think Choi will do, and why?

> Corby Gilmore
> [email protected]

John Mosey Complaints can be sent to [email protected]
Brewers-o-meter X |-----|-----| (and that includes Ricky Weeks)
"People ask me what I do in winter when there's no baseball. I'll
tell you what I do. I stare out the window and wait for spring."
-Rogers Hornsby



29 Nov 2003 13:37:40
David Marc Nieporent
Re: ESPN Headlines - Big Trade

In article <[email protected] >,
[email protected] (Corby Gilmore) wrote:

> The same lofty expectations that you put on Hee Sop Choi were also put
>forth on Lyle Overbay and Carlos Pena.

By whom? A quick tour through Google Groups shows virtually no _mentions_
of Overbay here, let alone hype.

---------------------------------------------
David M. Nieporent [email protected]


30 Nov 2003 18:24:59
King Tut
Re: ESPN Headlines - Big Trade

John Northey <[email protected] > wrote in message news:<[email protected]>...
>"D & K" <[email protected]> wrote:
>>http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=1671120
>>
>>Derek Lee was traded for Hee SEop Choi.
>
> Strange trade for the Cubs to make one would think. Choi was
> 218/350/421 last year and has one or two years left before he is
> eligible for arbitration. Lee in his career is 264/353/467 after a
> solid 271/379/508 last year. Choi could easily outperform Lee next
> season, thus why give him up along with a prospect for Lee? Perhaps
> the Cubs think Lee will keep up at his current level while Choi will
> regress. Given Lee has produced at this level for 3 of the past 4
> years he is likely to stay close to it. Choi though is 4 years
> younger and a lot cheaper.

This is flat out pseudo stathead silliness. You are only looking
at 3 stats to see which player is better? Have you forgotten
about defense? Lee is the best fielding first baseman in baseball,
Choi stinks. Right now, Lee is clearly the better player, and
probably will be for at least 2-3 more years.

Bow down to the King!