22 Nov 2004 08:19:56
Tom Adams
Futures Market Top 25

Here are the teams ranked by the probability that they will win the
NCAA tournament. The value on the left is the win probability
(expressed as a percentage) from tradesports.com from around 11 AM on
Nov 22. (Note that ties are not represented properly, but can be
discerned from the probabilities.)

1 Wake Forest to Win 11.5
2 Kansas to Win 10.9
3 North Carolina to Win 8
4 Syracuse to Win 7
5 Georgia Tech to Win 6.5
6 Kentucky to Win 6
7 Louisville to Win 5.8
8 Illinois to Win 5.4
9 Connecticut to Win 5
10 Duke to Win 5
11 Oklahoma State to Win 5
12 Arizona to Win 4.5
13 Michigan State to Win 4
14 Texas to Win 3.5
15 Maryland to Win 3.1
16 North Carolina State to Win 3
17 Notre Dame to Win 2.8
18 Mississippi State to Win 2.6
19 Florida to Win 2
20 Gonzaga to Win 2
21 Pittsburgh to Win 2
22 Alabama to Win 2
23 Michigan to Win 2
24 Washington to Win 2
25 Stanford to Win 1.9
26 Wisconsin to Win 1.8
27 UCLA to Win 1.8
28 Cincinnati to Win 1.1
29 Missouri to Win 1
30 Indiana to Win 1
31 Boston College to Win 1
32 Oklahoma to Win 0.9
33 Colorado to Win 0.9
34 Memphis to Win 0.8
35 Texas Tech to Win 0.8
36 De Paul to Win 0.7
37 San Diego State to Win 0.7
38 Tennessee to Win 0.6
39 Utah to Win 0.5
40 Oregon to Win 0.5
41 Arkansas to Win 0.5
42 BYU to Win 0.4
43 Seton Hall to Win 0.4
44 Providence to Win 0.4
45 Air Force to Win 0.4
46 Nevada to Win 0.4
47 Lamar to Win 0.4
48 Rhode Island to Win 0.4
49 UNLV to Win 0.4
50 St Josephs to Win 0.3
51 Ohio State to Win 0.2
52 Dayton to Win 0.2
53 Marquette to Win 0.2
54 California to Win 0.2
55 Villanova to Win 0.2
56 LSU to Win 0.2
57 Southern California to Win 0.2
58 Iowa State to Win 0.2
59 Virginia to Win 0.2
60 Florida State to Win 0.2
61 Princeton to Win 0.2
62 Charlotte to Win 0.1


23 Nov 2004 07:17:52
Tom Adams
Re: Futures Market Top 25

Interesting that UNC was knocked down to 11 or 12 in the polls, but
its betting market rank for the championship little impacted.

---
Learn how to win your office pool: www.poologic.com

tadamsmar@yahoo.com (Tom Adams) wrote in message news:<ea44f5a1.0411220819.57d503cc@posting.google.com >...
> Here are the teams ranked by the probability that they will win the
> NCAA tournament. The value on the left is the win probability
> (expressed as a percentage) from tradesports.com from around 11 AM on
> Nov 22. (Note that ties are not represented properly, but can be
> discerned from the probabilities.)
>
> 1 Wake Forest to Win 11.5
> 2 Kansas to Win 10.9
> 3 North Carolina to Win 8
> 4 Syracuse to Win 7
> 5 Georgia Tech to Win 6.5
> 6 Kentucky to Win 6
> 7 Louisville to Win 5.8
> 8 Illinois to Win 5.4
> 9 Connecticut to Win 5
> 10 Duke to Win 5
> 11 Oklahoma State to Win 5
> 12 Arizona to Win 4.5
> 13 Michigan State to Win 4
> 14 Texas to Win 3.5
> 15 Maryland to Win 3.1
> 16 North Carolina State to Win 3
> 17 Notre Dame to Win 2.8
> 18 Mississippi State to Win 2.6
> 19 Florida to Win 2
> 20 Gonzaga to Win 2
> 21 Pittsburgh to Win 2
> 22 Alabama to Win 2
> 23 Michigan to Win 2
> 24 Washington to Win 2
> 25 Stanford to Win 1.9
> 26 Wisconsin to Win 1.8
> 27 UCLA to Win 1.8
> 28 Cincinnati to Win 1.1
> 29 Missouri to Win 1
> 30 Indiana to Win 1
> 31 Boston College to Win 1
> 32 Oklahoma to Win 0.9
> 33 Colorado to Win 0.9
> 34 Memphis to Win 0.8
> 35 Texas Tech to Win 0.8
> 36 De Paul to Win 0.7
> 37 San Diego State to Win 0.7
> 38 Tennessee to Win 0.6
> 39 Utah to Win 0.5
> 40 Oregon to Win 0.5
> 41 Arkansas to Win 0.5
> 42 BYU to Win 0.4
> 43 Seton Hall to Win 0.4
> 44 Providence to Win 0.4
> 45 Air Force to Win 0.4
> 46 Nevada to Win 0.4
> 47 Lamar to Win 0.4
> 48 Rhode Island to Win 0.4
> 49 UNLV to Win 0.4
> 50 St Josephs to Win 0.3
> 51 Ohio State to Win 0.2
> 52 Dayton to Win 0.2
> 53 Marquette to Win 0.2
> 54 California to Win 0.2
> 55 Villanova to Win 0.2
> 56 LSU to Win 0.2
> 57 Southern California to Win 0.2
> 58 Iowa State to Win 0.2
> 59 Virginia to Win 0.2
> 60 Florida State to Win 0.2
> 61 Princeton to Win 0.2
> 62 Charlotte to Win 0.1


23 Nov 2004 12:55:44
Edward M. Kennedy
Re: Futures Market Top 25

"Tom Adams" <tadamsmar@yahoo.com > wrote:

> > 1 Wake Forest to Win 11.5
> > 2 Kansas to Win 10.9

This is seriously annoying.

> > 3 North Carolina to Win 8

This is seriously annoying.

> > 4 Syracuse to Win 7

This is seriously annoying.

> > 5 Georgia Tech to Win 6.5
> > 6 Kentucky to Win 6

This is seriously annoying.

> > 7 Louisville to Win 5.8

This is seriously annoying.

> > 8 Illinois to Win 5.4
> > 9 Connecticut to Win 5

This is seriously annoying.

> > 10 Duke to Win 5

Not this team.

> > 11 Oklahoma State to Win 5
> > 12 Arizona to Win 4.5
> > 13 Michigan State to Win 4
> > 14 Texas to Win 3.5
> > 15 Maryland to Win 3.1
> > 16 North Carolina State to Win 3

Nor that one.

> > 17 Notre Dame to Win 2.8
> > 18 Mississippi State to Win 2.6
> > 19 Florida to Win 2
> > 20 Gonzaga to Win 2

Gonzaga has mythical value, not that they haven't been good,
and as such are probably over-rated. Or not.

> > 21 Pittsburgh to Win 2
> > 22 Alabama to Win 2
> > 23 Michigan to Win 2
> > 24 Washington to Win 2
> > 25 Stanford to Win 1.9
> > 26 Wisconsin to Win 1.8
> > 27 UCLA to Win 1.8

Enough already. No more championships for you!

> > 28 Cincinnati to Win 1.1
> > 29 Missouri to Win 1
> > 30 Indiana to Win 1
> > 31 Boston College to Win 1
> > 32 Oklahoma to Win 0.9
> > 33 Colorado to Win 0.9
> > 34 Memphis to Win 0.8
> > 35 Texas Tech to Win 0.8
> > 36 De Paul to Win 0.7

Caution: Below here lies lunacy...

> > 37 San Diego State to Win 0.7

I'm not sure if the explanation involves sentimental value,
humor value, or both.

> > 38 Tennessee to Win 0.6
> > 39 Utah to Win 0.5
> > 40 Oregon to Win 0.5
> > 41 Arkansas to Win 0.5
> > 42 BYU to Win 0.4

Chortle.

> > 43 Seton Hall to Win 0.4
> > 44 Providence to Win 0.4
> > 45 Air Force to Win 0.4

This is never going to happen.

> > 46 Nevada to Win 0.4
> > 47 Lamar to Win 0.4

Hmmm. Who dat? I need to find out who/what/where Lamar is.

> > 48 Rhode Island to Win 0.4
> > 49 UNLV to Win 0.4
> > 50 St Josephs to Win 0.3
> > 51 Ohio State to Win 0.2
> > 52 Dayton to Win 0.2
> > 53 Marquette to Win 0.2
> > 54 California to Win 0.2
> > 55 Villanova to Win 0.2
> > 56 LSU to Win 0.2
> > 57 Southern California to Win 0.2
> > 58 Iowa State to Win 0.2

The only reason some of these teams are hear is because of the
mutual fund strategy.

> > 59 Virginia to Win 0.2

Maybe if they shorten the season by a good 2 months.

> > 60 Florida State to Win 0.2
> > 61 Princeton to Win 0.2

And there was much rejoicing!

> > 62 Charlotte to Win 0.1

--Tedward