30 Sep 2004 07:31:04
Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity

SUMMARY: Other computer modeling efforts have also predicted that
hurricanes will grow stronger and wetter as a result of global
warming. But this study is particularly significant, independent
experts said, because it used half a dozen computer simulations of
global climate, devised by separate groups at institutions around the
world. The long-term trends it identifies are independent of the
normal lulls and surges in hurricane activity that have been on
display in recent decades.

* The new study of hurricanes and warming "is by far and away the most
comprehensive effort" to assess the question using powerful computer
simulations, said Dr. Kerry A. Emanuel, a hurricane expert at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology who has seen the paper but did
not work on it. About the link between the warming of tropical oceans
and storm intensity, he said, "This clinches the issue."

* With almost every combination of greenhouse-warmed oceans and
atmosphere and formulas for storm dynamics, the results were the same:
more powerful storms and more rainfall

= = = FULL:

Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity
By ANDREW C. REVKIN

Published: September 30, 2004

Global warming is likely to produce a significant increase in the
intensity and rainfall of hurricanes in coming decades, according to
the most comprehensive computer analysis done so far.

By the 2080's, seas warmed by rising atmospheric concentrations of
heat-trapping greenhouse gases could cause a typical hurricane to
intensify about an extra half step on the five-step scale of
destructive power, says the study, done on supercomputers at the
Commerce Department's Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory in
Princeton, N.J. And rainfall up to 60 miles from the core would be
nearly 20 percent more intense.

Other computer modeling efforts have also predicted that hurricanes
will grow stronger and wetter as a result of global warming. But this
study is particularly significant, independent experts said, because
it used half a dozen computer simulations of global climate, devised
by separate groups at institutions around the world. The long-term
trends it identifies are independent of the normal lulls and surges in
hurricane activity that have been on display in recent decades.

The study, published online on Tuesday by The Journal of Climate, is
at www.gfdl.noaa.gov/reference/bibliography/2004/tk0401.pdf.

The new study of hurricanes and warming "is by far and away the most
comprehensive effort" to assess the question using powerful computer
simulations, said Dr. Kerry A. Emanuel, a hurricane expert at the
Massachusetts Institute of Technology who has seen the paper but did
not work on it. About the link between the warming of tropical oceans
and storm intensity, he said, "This clinches the issue."

Dr. Emanuel and the study's authors cautioned that it was too soon to
know whether hurricanes would form more or less frequently in a warmer
world. Even as seas warm, for example, accelerating high-level winds
can shred the towering cloud formations of a tropical storm.

But the authors said that even if the number of storms simply stayed
the same, the increased intensity would substantially increase their
potential for destruction.

Experts also said that rising sea levels caused by global warming
would lead to more flooding from hurricanes - a point underlined at
the United Nations this week by leaders of several small island
nations, who pleaded for more attention to the potential for
devastation from tidal surges.

The new study used four climate centers' mathematical approximations
of the physics by which ocean heat fuels tropical storms.

With almost every combination of greenhouse-warmed oceans and
atmosphere and formulas for storm dynamics, the results were the same:
more powerful storms and more rainfall, said Robert Tuleya, one of the
paper's two authors. He is a hurricane expert who recently retired
after 31 years at the fluid dynamics laboratory and teaches at Old
Dominion University in Norfolk, Va. The other author was Dr. Thomas R.
Knutson of the Princeton laboratory.

Altogether, the researchers spawned around 1,300 virtual hurricanes
using a more powerful version of the same supercomputer simulations
that generates Commerce Department forecasts of the tracks and
behavior of real hurricanes.

Dr. James B. Elsner, a hurricane expert at Florida State University
who was among the first to predict the recent surge in Atlantic storm
activity, said the new study was a significant step in examining the
impacts of a warmer future.

But like Dr. Emanuel, he also emphasized that the extraordinary
complexity of the oceans and atmosphere made any scientific progress
"baby steps toward a final answer."


http://www.nytimes.com/2004/09/30/science/30hurricane.html


30 Sep 2004 11:43:43
Eric Neale
Re: Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity

hal@nospam.com wrote in message news:<mj2ol0pkhvv4qr9o6oid2cjrfe72o079md@4ax.com >...
> SUMMARY: Other computer modeling efforts have also predicted that
> hurricanes will grow stronger and wetter as a result of global
> warming. But this study is particularly significant, independent
> experts said, because it used half a dozen computer simulations of
> global climate, devised by separate groups at institutions around the
> world. The long-term trends it identifies are independent of the
> normal lulls and surges in hurricane activity that have been on
> display in recent decades.
<snip >

So what can we do about it? Is it better to build hurricane resistant
structures or just abandon beach property in hurricane prone zones?
Is there any way the government can be better prepared to respond to
the regular patern of disasters?

Do chi bolts have any effect on hurricanes? :-)


30 Sep 2004 17:06:24
Todd Christensen
Re: Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity

calvinthecat@ocsnet.net (Eric Neale) wrote in message news:<fca39b3b.0409301043.55da453e@posting.google.com >...
> hal@nospam.com wrote in message news:<mj2ol0pkhvv4qr9o6oid2cjrfe72o079md@4ax.com>...
> > SUMMARY: Other computer modeling efforts have also predicted that
> > hurricanes will grow stronger and wetter as a result of global
> > warming. But this study is particularly significant, independent
> > experts said, because it used half a dozen computer simulations of
> > global climate, devised by separate groups at institutions around the
> > world. The long-term trends it identifies are independent of the
> > normal lulls and surges in hurricane activity that have been on
> > display in recent decades.
> <snip>
>
> So what can we do about it? Is it better to build hurricane resistant
> structures or just abandon beach property in hurricane prone zones?
> Is there any way the government can be better prepared to respond to
> the regular patern of disasters?
>
> Do chi bolts have any effect on hurricanes? :-)

No but emissions standards just might.


06 Oct 2004 06:58:03
Mike Sigman
Re: Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity


<hal@nospam.com > wrote in message
news:mj2ol0pkhvv4qr9o6oid2cjrfe72o079md@4ax.com...
>
> Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity
> By ANDREW C. REVKIN
>
> Published: September 30, 2004
>
> Global warming is likely to produce a significant increase in the
> intensity and rainfall of hurricanes in coming decades, according to
> the most comprehensive computer analysis done so far.
>
> By the 2080's, seas warmed by rising atmospheric concentrations of
> heat-trapping greenhouse gases


Er, I realize you're behind the times, Hal, but you're aware that computer
models have shown for DECADES that an increase in the earth's temperature
will result in more storms, etc., as the earth expends the extra energy?
The question is exactly what and how-much of any increase in temperature
(the increase is not even a certain thing, Hal!!!!!!) is caused by man-made
pollutants. A LOT of people think that MOST of the reason for any
short-term temperature gains is because of fluctuations in the sun's
intensity. Quit beating your "here's what us Lefty's believe" drum

Mike




06 Oct 2004 12:55:18
Shuurai
Re: Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity

> > So what can we do about it? Is it better to build hurricane resistant
> > structures or just abandon beach property in hurricane prone zones?
> > Is there any way the government can be better prepared to respond to
> > the regular patern of disasters?
> >
> > Do chi bolts have any effect on hurricanes? :-)
>
> No but emissions standards just might.

Not likely.

Fact is, despite what the tree-hugging crowd likes to think, there really
isn't all that much information on just how much emissions (or any human
influence) effects global warming. There are other factors - fluctuations
in solar energy, natural warming cycles - that have far greater influence.

The planet has gone through warming and cooling cycles for millions upon
millions of years. We're not going to change that.


06 Oct 2004 18:55:27
Paul Tanenbaum
Re: Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity

hal@nospam.com wrote in message news:<mj2ol0pkhvv4qr9o6oid2cjrfe72o079md@4ax.com >...
> SUMMARY: Other computer modeling efforts have also predicted that
> hurricanes will grow stronger and wetter as a result of global
> warming...

Warming shwarming, this is going to wreck us a lot sooner:
www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/09/12/MNG2S8NOI21.DTL

Select from one of the following:

a) double the payroll tax
b) raise income taxes by two-thirds
c) cut Social Security and Medicare benefits by 45 percent
d) none of the above

oops, sorry, (d) is not an option -

---
Paul T.


06 Oct 2004 23:46:01
Shuurai
Re: Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity

ptanenbaum@consultant.com (Paul Tanenbaum) wrote in message news:<c9bdbfd.0410061755.2d1c691a@posting.google.com >...
> hal@nospam.com wrote in message news:<mj2ol0pkhvv4qr9o6oid2cjrfe72o079md@4ax.com>...
> > SUMMARY: Other computer modeling efforts have also predicted that
> > hurricanes will grow stronger and wetter as a result of global
> > warming...
>
> Warming shwarming, this is going to wreck us a lot sooner:
> www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/09/12/MNG2S8NOI21.DTL
>
> Select from one of the following:
>
> a) double the payroll tax
> b) raise income taxes by two-thirds
> c) cut Social Security and Medicare benefits by 45 percent
> d) none of the above

Raise both payroll and income taxes slightly and completely eliminate
social security. Let people save their own money.


07 Oct 2004 00:18:11
Eric Neale
Re: Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity

ptanenbaum@consultant.com (Paul Tanenbaum) wrote in message news:<c9bdbfd.0410061755.2d1c691a@posting.google.com >...
> hal@nospam.com wrote in message news:<mj2ol0pkhvv4qr9o6oid2cjrfe72o079md@4ax.com>...
> > SUMMARY: Other computer modeling efforts have also predicted that
> > hurricanes will grow stronger and wetter as a result of global
> > warming...
>
> Warming shwarming, this is going to wreck us a lot sooner:
> www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/09/12/MNG2S8NOI21.DTL
>
> Select from one of the following:
>
> a) double the payroll tax
> b) raise income taxes by two-thirds
> c) cut Social Security and Medicare benefits by 45 percent
> d) none of the above
>
> oops, sorry, (d) is not an option -

That should hit right about the time of the oil crash. Can you say
hard landing? The thing that pisses me off the most is that no mater
who the president is at that time he will blame the *other* party for
the mess that has been building for decades. Right now the Yale men
keep mud slinging over Vietnam and Iraq so they don't have to talk
about the important issues.


07 Oct 2004 08:36:25
Eric Neale
Re: Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity

Shuurai11@hotmail.com (Shuurai) wrote in message news:<a9d0195c.0410062246.1946c00c@posting.google.com >...
> ptanenbaum@consultant.com (Paul Tanenbaum) wrote in message news:<c9bdbfd.0410061755.2d1c691a@posting.google.com>...
> > hal@nospam.com wrote in message news:<mj2ol0pkhvv4qr9o6oid2cjrfe72o079md@4ax.com>...
> > > SUMMARY: Other computer modeling efforts have also predicted that
> > > hurricanes will grow stronger and wetter as a result of global
> > > warming...
> >
> > Warming shwarming, this is going to wreck us a lot sooner:
> > www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?file=/chronicle/archive/2004/09/12/MNG2S8NOI21.DTL
> >
> > Select from one of the following:
> >
> > a) double the payroll tax
> > b) raise income taxes by two-thirds
> > c) cut Social Security and Medicare benefits by 45 percent
> > d) none of the above
>
> Raise both payroll and income taxes slightly and completely eliminate
> social security. Let people save their own money.


That does it!

Shuurai for president! On Nov. 2nd write his name in on the ballot.



And yes I know those who lose their SS benifits will suffer but they
are going to lose the benifits and suffer even more if we have a hard
landing.


11 Oct 2004 20:46:09
Laszlo
Re: Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity...

hal@nospam.com wrote in message news:<mj2ol0pkhvv4qr9o6oid2cjrfe72o079md@4ax.com >...
> SUMMARY: Other computer modeling efforts have also predicted that
> hurricanes will grow stronger and wetter as a result of global
> warming. But this study is particularly significant, independent
> experts said, because it used half a dozen computer simulations of
> global climate, devised by separate groups at institutions around the
> world. The long-term trends it identifies are independent of the
> normal lulls and surges in hurricane activity that have been on
> display in recent decades.

Holy shit. Most insignificant issue EVER.

This is like a fifty-year old worrying about what he can do to avoid
ingrown toenails that may or may not afflict him in 70 years... while
a cancer is metastasizing inside him.

We--Western Civilization--need to work on *survival*, okay? Should
we somehow manage that, we can always get back to worrying about
trivial crap like this, if we have nothing better to do.

We can't avoid economic devastation. It's TOO LATE. We can still
salvage a lot, though. But not by barraging the public with these
FUCKING BULLSHIT ISSUES. Christ.

Laszlo


13 Oct 2004 01:17:22
Paul Tanenbaum
Re: Global Warming Is Expected to Raise Hurricane Intensity...

laszlo_spamhole@freemail.hu (Laszlo) wrote in message news:<36c239a1.0410111946.2fe9f554@posting.google.com >...
> ....
> We--Western Civilization--need to work on *survival*, okay? Should
> we somehow manage that, we can always get back to worrying about
> trivial crap like this, if we have nothing better to do.
>
> We can't avoid economic devastation. It's TOO LATE.

Absolutely, Laz, bang on, bulls eye, couldn't have said it better myself.

Just one question, though: what ARE you talking about?

---
Paul T.