21 Feb 2007 18:19:09
Dave -Turner
Current World Cup odds

$3.25 - Australia
$5.50 - South Africa
$8.00 - Sri Lanka, India, West Indies
$9.00 - England, New Zealand
$11.00 - Pakistan
$301.00 - Bangladesh
$501.00 - Kenya, Zimbabwe
$1001.00 - Holland, Ireland, Scotland, Canada, Bermuda




21 Feb 2007 10:28:16
sdf
Re: Current World Cup odds


"Dave -Turner" <d@t.3.2.1 > wrote in message
news:45dc0e5c@quokka.wn.com.au...
> $3.25 - Australia
> $5.50 - South Africa
> $8.00 - Sri Lanka, India, West Indies
> $9.00 - England, New Zealand
> $11.00 - Pakistan
> $301.00 - Bangladesh
> $501.00 - Kenya, Zimbabwe
> $1001.00 - Holland, Ireland, Scotland, Canada, Bermuda
>
What are the odds for the first Aus game (V the Scottish powerhouse)?




22 Feb 2007 16:21:43
will s
Re: Current World Cup odds


"Dave -Turner" <d@t.3.2.1 > wrote in message
news:45dc0e5c@quokka.wn.com.au...
> $3.25 - Australia
> $5.50 - South Africa
> $8.00 - Sri Lanka, India, West Indies
> $9.00 - England, New Zealand
> $11.00 - Pakistan
> $301.00 - Bangladesh
> $501.00 - Kenya, Zimbabwe
> $1001.00 - Holland, Ireland, Scotland, Canada, Bermuda
>
>


Maybe a fake "missing wc" injury to Ponting could increase the odds becAUSE
LOSING THE LAST 5 MATCHES

has not done its job


Are all the bookies Higgsies ?



22 Feb 2007 22:03:36
JPD
Re: Current World Cup odds

On Feb 21, 9:19 pm, "Dave -Turner" <d...@t.3.2.1 > wrote:
> $3.25 - Australia
> $5.50 - South Africa
> $8.00 - Sri Lanka, India, West Indies
> $9.00 - England, New Zealand
> $11.00 - Pakistan

So, in the past ten days, South Africa have shortened to outright
second-favouritism, and New Zealand have shortened by the greatest
amount (in from $13). I am surprised that England have not been
backed in more than that, not on the grounds of their merit but
because a fair bit of silly money could have been thrown at them in
the wake of the CB Series win. Of course, the same surprise can be
expressed about India's odds, since there must be ten times as much
silly money being wagered on that team (unless Indian cricket fans are
just basically too smart for that?)

Australia continuing to be quoted at short odds is certainly a result
of the volume of money bet on them *before* they fell apart. The
bookmakers will keep them short right up until the Super 8 stage,
since they will already have huge exposure.

On these odds, I recommend betting an equal amount on each of Sri
Lanka, India, West Indies and New Zealand, and 1.5 times that amount
on South Africa. The WC winner seems likely to come from those five,
and for the expenditure of 5.5 units one can make a profit of between
2.75 and 3.5, an honest month's work.

--

JPD



22 Feb 2007 22:22:41
dp
Re: Current World Cup odds

On Feb 23, 11:03 am, "JPD" <john_p_da...@yahoo.com.au > wrote:
<snip >
> the wake of the CB Series win. Of course, the same surprise can be
> expressed about India's odds, since there must be ten times as much
> silly money being wagered on that team (unless Indian cricket fans are
> just basically too smart for that?)

I don't know about too smart, but most of them are regular betters and
they can't afford to just bet emotionally on India. Vast majority of
them bet purely with an eye on returns. i.e. they are not cricket fans
who put in a small sum on their favourite team just for the fun of it
(which I suspect could be the case in say, Australia), but are
professional punters who study the odds carefully and bet. So, if they
think Australia has a better chance of winning they are more likely to
bet on them than on India. Also, unlike in most other places where
telecast is restricted to matches involving home team and people only
have a vague idea of what other teams are upto, in India we get to
watch every international match that is played and those who bet for a
living (and believe me, there are quite a few of them) do keep track
of every team's players. So even in terms of information, there isn't
much difference between the Indian team and other teams for Indian
punters.

> Australia continuing to be quoted at short odds is certainly a result
> of the volume of money bet on them *before* they fell apart.

Most of which would probably have come from India.

dp



22 Feb 2007 22:36:02
Re: Current World Cup odds

On Feb 21, 3:19 pm, "Dave -Turner" <d...@t.3.2.1 > wrote:
> $3.25 - Australia
> $5.50 - South Africa
> $8.00 - Sri Lanka, India, West Indies
> $9.00 - England, New Zealand
> $11.00 - Pakistan
> $301.00 - Bangladesh
> $501.00 - Kenya, Zimbabwe
> $1001.00 - Holland, Ireland, Scotland, Canada, Bermuda

So the bookies are betting on either Australia or SA taking the title.
If I was to bet one dollar each on SL, India, WI, England, NZ and
Pakistan I would definitely win something if either of these 6 teams
won. I would gain 2 dollars (on the 6 dollars bet) if SL, India or the
West Indies won. I would gain 3 dollars if Eng or NZ won and I would
gain 5 dollars if Pakistan won.

Conversely, if one were convinced that the winner would be either SA
or Aus than too one could bet a dollar each on the two.

In that case one would get one dollar twenty five cents if Aus won (on
the two dollars that one betted) or gain 3 dollars and fifty cents if
SA won.

I would say the above odds are pretty good if one was a betting man.

Pakistan at 11 to 1 seems incredibly high and certainly worth taking
if one likes to bet. 8 to 1 for India and 5.5 to 1 for SA also seems
quite good.



23 Feb 2007 02:50:36
JPD
Re: Current World Cup odds

On Feb 23, 5:03 pm, "JPD" <john_p_da...@yahoo.com.au > wrote:
> On Feb 21, 9:19 pm, "Dave -Turner" <d...@t.3.2.1> wrote:
>
> > $3.25 - Australia
> > $5.50 - South Africa
> > $8.00 - Sri Lanka, India, West Indies
> > $9.00 - England, New Zealand
> > $11.00 - Pakistan

It is worth noting that the odds being offered by Australian sports
betting agencies are somewhat different.

Australia $3.00
South Africa $4.50
New Zealand $7.00
West Indies $8.00
Sri Lanka $9.00
India $9.00
England $9.00
Pakistan $11.00

No doubt reflective of a recent plunge - or anticipated plunge - on
New Zealand. On these odds, I would still ignore Australia, England
and Pakistan, and spread my bets in proportion across the other five
teams and earn a 40% profit if the winner indeed comes from amongst
them.

Proportional betting across all eight teams will not yield a profit,
but betting on all except Australia can return a profit of around 10%
(a little more or less depending on how close the bet amounts are to
truly proportional) - assuming that Australia does not win.

--

JPD