27 Nov 2004 23:12:59
Danzig
award eclipsed?

I saw a trend with the very good Pico Central sometime back and got a
bit of good natured chiding about it: a contributor wrote regarding his
last win : "he sure looked tired today.."

Original comment was on 10/2/04 "This one seems to be going South. Was
very good two back...hope this one did burn out."

I have all the respect in the world with this one: His Met mile was
magnificent, he beat a stellar field in a truly amazing fashion.....BUT


I contribute as a member of a Sartin methodology support group
(SartinAlums@Yahoo.com) and just this week made a comment about what
happened (even thought I commented one race too soon). When a horse's
total energy (sum of the three fractional velocities) begins to decrease
AND the median energy goes up (energy distribution gets earlier) these
horses are going off form.

Last three races TOTAL median energy
161.39 66.8 very atypical for this one and Lowest
of all totals
161.74 69.2
164.56 68.4

It was that shift of both decreasing energy and median going up that led
me to the original comment, and today this one tried to go out at a MILE
in 44.1........far too fast and a shift to earlier, the 43.9 at Del Mar
cooked him as well.

Well it appears Speighstown will get the nod, deservedly, probably
before this contest today.


27 Nov 2004 23:48:33
Danzig
Re: award eclipsed?

did not go far back enough

It was the trend of the last three BEFORE the 6.0 sprint (the atypical line)
>
> Last FOUR races TOTAL median energy
> 161.39 66.8 very atypical for this one and Lowest
> of all totals
> 161.74 69.2
> 164.56 68.4
> 165.29 68.1

Median going up and total going down

Tim Yatcak